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What can stop rising real estate prices

For the coordinator of the FipeZAP index, funds from savings will be insufficient to sustain the expansion of real estate credit at the current pace - which will hold prices back

São Paulo – The Brazilian economy has gone through a process of deceleration in recent months, Europe and the States seem to be heading towards a long period of low growth and world exchanges are not finding the bottom of the well. Only the price of real estate continues to rise in Brazil. Released last Wednesday, the FipeZAP index, the main Brazilian indicator of the prices of residential properties in Brazil, showed an appreciation of 17% in just the first seven months of this year. Although the pace of increase is decelerating (+2.7% in April, +2.6% in May, +2.3% in June and +2.1% in July), prices continue to advance to a step much faster than that of the main inflation indicator in the country, the IPCA.

In order to understand why real estate prices continue to rise so quickly and what could stop this movement in the future, EXAME.com spoke with Eduardo Zylberstajn, a researcher at Fipe and coordinator of the FipeZAP index. Read below a summary of his vision for the Brazilian real estate market:

Property prices have registered strong appreciation since the middle of the last decade. The rise above inflation was around 70%. But a good part of this valuation was due to the fact that the prices practiced before were very low. There was a strong correction, but from an excessively low base of comparison.

The explanation for this movement is economic and basically includes four major sources of pressure on demand. The first was the control of inflation, without which there would be no incentive for financial planning and the necessary savings for the purchase of a property. I don't believe the current government is willing to put price controls at risk.

Another factor that has fueled and will continue to fuel demand for real estate is demographic. Every year, Brazilians appear interested in buying over 1.5 million new homes. Part of that comes from population growth, but that's not all. More people are leaving their parents' homes to live alone or in small families. An IBGE survey shows that the number of people in each household dropped from 3.7 to 3.2 in the last decade. Not to mention the housing deficit that still exists in Brazil and that will generate demand for several years.

The third factor, which like the others should continue to exist, is wage and employment growth. Many categories have had and continue to achieve real increases in income. Combined with government subsidies for the purchase of real estate by the lower-income population, this makes more people able to fulfill their dream of owning a home.

In my opinion, the only boost to real estate valuation that is likely to lose steam is credit. I have many doubts whether the expansion of real estate financing will continue at the current pace. The explanation is financial: banks will not have the money to extend credit at current interest rates.

Housing credit is the cheapest among all the modalities granted to individuals because there is a kind of implicit subsidy created by the government. The resources from the savings account are the main source of financing for banks to offer loans so that the population can buy houses. Banks raise money via passbook and pay savers an annual remuneration of 6% to 7%. They then lend that money at rates that typically range from 11% to 12% a year for those wanting to buy a house. This type of operation is enough to cover any losses due to default and also guarantees a small profit to the banks.

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The problem is that the resources in the savings account should run out in mid-2012. Today, the stock of savings accounts for almost 310 billion reais. Of this total, 65%, or around 200 billion reais, must be mandatorily directed to real estate credit – otherwise, they become compulsory deposits collected with the Central Bank. The numbers released by Abecip this Wednesday (08/03) show that the stock of real estate credit already totals around 160 billion reais. In the first half alone, another 37 billion in real estate loans were granted. The forecast for the 12 months of 2011 is that 85 billion will be released.

Looking at these numbers and even considering the income from savings, possible new funding and loan repayments for the purchase of homes, I believe that at some point in 2012 the money in the booklet that can be used to finance the expansion of real estate credit will run out. And that changes everything. Banks will have to look to the market for other forms of financing to grant these loans. There are several options, but none of them include the implicit savings account subsidy.

When the source of funds becomes more expensive, I think the cost will be passed on to the consumer and mortgages will also become more expensive. The higher interest rates should make the purchase of real estate no longer fit in some people's pockets. Under these conditions, fewer people will be able to close deals. I'm not saying that real estate prices will stop rising from then on, but I think we'll see less intense price changes.

One of the leading scholars of real estate and other asset prices is American economist Robert Schiller. He is even one of those responsible for the Case-Shiller index, one of the main thermometers in the American real estate market, and he is also quite famous for having predicted, since 2005, the bursting of the mortgage bubble.

In one of his well-known studies, Shiller has evaluated property prices in the United States since 1890 and showed that the variations are very large, but that, on average, they grow at a rate similar to the American inflation. Major upturns are therefore followed by downturns that cancel out part of the previous appreciation, and so on.

The FipeZAP index, in fact, already shows some deceleration in the pace of increase in property prices, but prices still rise well above inflation. I don't know if this will be the trend for the coming months. What I am trying to say is that, as soon as credit becomes more expensive, there will be an economic motivation for real estate prices to advance at a slower pace.

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